- Four forecasts published in September put growth in US online holiday sales at 6.7% (Adobe), 7.5% to 8.4% (Deloitte), 9% (Bain), and 11% (Mastercard). [1][2][3][4]
- They do not cover the same season. Adobe and Bain count November and December, Mastercard stops on December 24, and Deloitte runs through January. [1][3][4][2]
- Deloitte’s dollar totals are built on seasonally adjusted Census Bureau figures, a method that removes the holiday peak. [2][5]
- In the Bureau’s nonstore retailer series, December 2025 sales were 27.5% above the adjusted figure. [6]
- Mastercard says about half of the growth is higher prices. Bain says more than half. [4][3]
- Bain says the season will top $1 trillion for the first time. The National Retail Federation forecast that milestone for 2025. [3][7]
- Compare your plan with the forecast that shares your calendar, your channel, and your kind of dollars.
The holiday forecasts arrive in September within weeks of each other, and they get quoted side by side as if they answered one question. This year four of the best known put growth in US online sales at 6.7%, 7.5% to 8.4%, 9%, and 11%. [1][2][3][4] That is a spread of 4.3 points between the lowest and the highest, on the number most e-commerce teams will be measured against in January.
None of the four is wrong on its own terms. They count different days, different sales, and different dollars.
The chart shows forecast year-over-year growth in online sales: Adobe 6.7%, Deloitte 7.5% to 8.4% (drawn at the midpoint, 7.95%), Bain 9%, and Mastercard 11%. [1][2][3][4]
What each forecast counts
| Forecaster | Published | Season | What is counted | Total growth | Online growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adobe [1] | September 28 | November 1 to December 31 | Online only, from transactions in Adobe Analytics | Not forecast | 6.7%, to $275.1 billion |
| Deloitte [2] | September 10 | November through January | Retail sales excluding automotive and gasoline, seasonally adjusted | 4.0% to 4.8%, to $1.70 to $1.71 trillion | 7.5% to 8.4%, to $316.1 to $318.9 billion |
| Bain [3] | September 3 | November and December | Retail sales, split into in-store and nonstore | 4.5%, to more than $1 trillion | 9%, nonstore |
| Mastercard [4] | September 23 | November 1 to December 24 | Retail sales excluding automobiles and gas, in-store and online, all forms of payment | 5.5% | 11% |
Adobe is the only one of the four that measures the web alone. Its forecast is “based on over 1 trillion visits to U.S. retail sites, 100 million SKUs and 18 product categories.” [1] Mastercard publishes growth rates and no dollar totals. [4]
Three calendars
Mastercard’s season ends on Christmas Eve, so the last week of December is outside it. Deloitte’s includes all of January. A retailer that applies Mastercard’s 11% to its own November and December revenue is applying it to seven days the forecast never covered.
The calendar inside the season also moved. Adobe dates Cyber Monday to November 30. [1] Mastercard calls that the bigger change from last year: “Cyber Monday lands in November, concentrating online shopping into one long weekend and making November an especially important month for retailers.” [4] Anyone comparing this November with last November, or this December with last, is comparing months that do not hold the same shopping days.
Three sizes of online
The word online does not mean one thing either. Deloitte’s note to editors puts last season’s e-commerce at an estimated $294 billion against $1.63 trillion of retail sales, which is 18% of the total. [2] Bain says in-store sales drive 70% of the season, which leaves 30% for what it calls nonstore. [3] Mastercard gives no share, but its three growth rates (5.5% overall, 3.6% in stores, 11% online) only fit together if online is about 26% of its base. That last figure is our arithmetic, not Mastercard’s.
So online is 18%, 26%, or 30% of the holiday, depending on who draws the line. Growth rates measured on different bases are not rival estimates of one quantity.
Deloitte’s dollars have the holiday peak removed
Deloitte’s note says its base, retail sales from November 2025 through January 2026, is “seasonally adjusted and excluding automotive and gasoline,” and its e-commerce base is seasonally adjusted too. [2] The forecast range is that base multiplied by the growth rates, so it is in the same adjusted dollars.
The Census Bureau describes seasonal adjustment as “the estimation and removal of seasonal effects from a time series,” and lists “fixed holidays such as Christmas” among those effects. [5] In a multiplicative adjustment, it says, “the seasonally adjusted series is the original series divided by the seasonal (or combined) factors.” [5] The Bureau publishes those factors alongside its monthly sales figures. Here they are for nonstore retailers, the Census category whose name Bain uses for its online measure. [6]
| Month | Adjusted sales | Seasonal factor | Sales before adjustment |
|---|---|---|---|
| November 2025 | $115.9 billion | 1.085 | $125.7 billion |
| December 2025 | $116.2 billion | 1.275 | $148.2 billion |
| January 2026 | $117.1 billion | 0.932 | $109.2 billion |
| Three months | $349.2 billion | $383.1 billion |
The first two columns are the Census Bureau’s. [6] The last is ours: adjusted sales multiplied by the factor. Over the three months, the money taken in was about 10% more than the adjusted total, and in December alone it was 27.5% more.
That series is not the one Deloitte uses for e-commerce, so the table shows the size of the effect and not Deloitte’s own gap. It does help explain an odd pair of numbers. Deloitte’s e-commerce total covers 92 days and Adobe’s online total covers 61, yet Deloitte’s is only 15% to 16% larger. [1][2] The practical rule: compare Deloitte’s growth rates with your own, and leave its dollar totals out of any comparison with revenue as your books record it.
About half of the growth is price
Two of the four say how much of the growth is real. Mastercard “estimates about half the growth in spending will be due to higher prices,” and points to elevated energy costs and AI-driven demand. [4] Bain’s release says inflation will account for more than half of the nominal rise in sales. [3] On those accounts, Mastercard’s 5.5% holds something under three points of extra volume, and Bain’s 4.5% holds less than that.
Adobe gives no such split. It expects discounts “on par with the 2025 season,” peaking at 30% off listed price in electronics against 30.1% last year. [1] It also expects visits from AI services to US retail sites to rise 130%, a figure it measures by shoppers clicking on a link, which is the narrow definition we examined in our piece on AI traffic. [1]
A revenue target copied from a headline rate is, by these forecasters’ own description, partly a price target.
The first trillion-dollar holiday, again
Bain’s headline is that US holiday retail sales will “exceed $1 trillion for the first time.” [3] On November 6, 2025, the National Retail Federation published its forecast for last season under the title “NRF Expects Holiday Sales to Surpass $1 Trillion for the First Time in 2025,” with a range of $1.01 trillion to $1.02 trillion. [7] NRF counts November 1 through December 31 and “excludes automobile dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants to focus on core retail.” [7] Deloitte’s three-month total is already $1.70 trillion or more. [2]
NRF had not published a 2026 holiday forecast when we checked on October 13. Its forecasts page still listed the 2025 one. [8]
Which forecast fits your report
Adobe. Online only, November 1 to December 31, 6.7% growth to $275.1 billion. It is also the only one with day-level figures: Cyber Monday $15.1 billion (up 6.2%), Black Friday $12.9 billion (up 9.2%), Thanksgiving $6.9 billion (up 8.5%), and Cyber Week at 17.3% of the season. [1]
Mastercard or Bain. Mastercard forecasts 5.5% overall, 3.6% in stores, and 11% online, through December 24. [4] Bain forecasts 4.5% overall, 2.5% in stores, and 9% nonstore, through December. [3] Rebuild last year’s figure on the same dates before you apply either rate.
Deloitte. November through January, 4.0% to 4.8% for retail and 7.5% to 8.4% for e-commerce. [2] Use the growth rates. The dollar totals are seasonally adjusted and will not match revenue as you booked it.
Before you quote a forecast in a plan
- Write down three things next to the number: the dates, the channel, and whether the dollars are adjusted.
- Compare growth rates across forecasters, never dollar totals.
- Recut last year’s revenue to the forecast’s dates. For Mastercard that means stopping at December 24. [4]
- Split your target into price and units, and check the units against what two forecasters say about inflation. [4][3]
- Move Cyber Monday when you compare months. It is November 30 this year. [1]
- In January, grade each forecast against results from the same publisher, on the same definition.
Sources
- Adobe · Adobe: U.S. Holiday Shopping Season to Hit Record $275.1 Billion Online, Rising 6.7% YoYPrimary. Press release, September 28, 2026. Vendor forecast from Adobe Analytics data.
- Deloitte · Deloitte Forecasts Holiday Retail Sales to Reach $1.70 Trillion to $1.71 TrillionPrimary. Press release, September 10, 2026. The note to editors describes the base figures.
- Bain & Company · US holiday retail sales set to outpace last year’s seasonal growth performance to exceed $1 trillion for the first timePrimary. Press release, September 3, 2026.
- Mastercard · From AI-powered planning to the Christmas Eve rush: What to expect this holiday seasonPrimary. Mastercard Economics Institute forecast, September 23, 2026, based on SpendingPulse.
- US Census Bureau · Seasonal Adjustment Questions and AnswersPrimary. Official explanation of the method.
- US Census Bureau · Monthly Retail Sales & Seasonal Factors: Nonstore RetailersPrimary. Time series file, read October 13, 2026. Adjusted sales and seasonal factors; the unadjusted column in our table is derived from them.
- National Retail Federation · NRF Expects Holiday Sales to Surpass $1 Trillion for the First Time in 2025Primary. Press release, November 6, 2025.
- National Retail Federation · NRF ForecastsPrimary. Read October 13, 2026.
Frequently asked questions
How much are US holiday sales expected to grow in 2026?
It depends on the forecaster and on what is counted. For total retail sales, Deloitte forecasts 4.0% to 4.8% for November through January, Bain 4.5% for November and December, and Mastercard 5.5% for November 1 to December 24. For online sales, Adobe forecasts 6.7%, Deloitte 7.5% to 8.4%, Bain 9% for what it calls nonstore sales, and Mastercard 11%.
Why do the holiday forecasts disagree?
They measure different things. The four cover 54, 61, or 92 days. Adobe counts only online transactions, while the others count stores as well. Deloitte builds on seasonally adjusted Census Bureau figures, which have the seasonal peak removed, and Adobe counts transactions as they happen.
Which forecast should an online store use as a benchmark?
The one that shares its calendar and channel. Adobe’s forecast covers online sales only, from November 1 to December 31, and gives figures for single days such as Cyber Monday. If you report stores and online together, Mastercard and Bain publish separate in-store and online rates. If your quarter ends in January, Deloitte’s window is the closest.
What does seasonally adjusted mean for a holiday number?
The Census Bureau describes seasonal adjustment as the estimation and removal of seasonal effects from a series, and lists fixed holidays such as Christmas among those effects. An adjusted December figure is therefore lower than what stores took in. In the Bureau’s nonstore retailer series, the factor for December 2025 was 1.275, which puts sales 27.5% above the adjusted figure.
How much of the forecast growth is inflation?
Mastercard estimates that about half of the growth in spending will be due to higher prices. Bain says inflation will account for more than half of the nominal rise in sales. Adobe’s release gives no split between price and volume.
When is Cyber Monday in 2026?
November 30. Adobe expects it to be the largest online shopping day of the season at $15.1 billion, up 6.2%. Mastercard points out that Cyber Monday lands in November this year, which it calls the bigger change from last year.
Will holiday sales pass $1 trillion in 2026?
Bain forecasts that November and December sales will top $1 trillion for the first time. The National Retail Federation forecast the same milestone for the 2025 season, with a range of $1.01 trillion to $1.02 trillion. Deloitte’s total for its three-month window is $1.70 trillion to $1.71 trillion. Whether a season passes the mark depends on which sales and which months are in the total.
Mikołaj Salecki
Writes about media, tech, and AI business for people who actually run digital. Former agency lead. Skeptic of frameworks that read better than they perform.
